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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 18

Jacksonville Jaguars 35 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(:31) 55-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 36-L.Allen up the middle to LAC 11 for 7 yards (40-K.Williamson).

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.04 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP