Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 42-E.Evans punts 44 yards to SEA 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at SEA 24 for 9 yards (22-B.Corum). PENALTY on SEA-1-D.Kendrick, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at SEA 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.56 EP
61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -2.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model