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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 8

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(1:22) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner right guard to LA 7 for 1 yard (55-B.Fiske; 48-O.Speights).

The Three Options

GO +3.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.17 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 8, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model