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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 3

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(:04) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +3.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.84 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 3, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.85 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP