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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 8
Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0
What Actually Happened
(12:12) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 89-T.Higbee.
The Three Options
GO
+3.98 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.75 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 8, worth +0.20 EP
KICK
+1.74 EP
- 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT
+0.07 EP
- Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
