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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 11

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 5-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.79 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP