4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Seattle Seahawks 12

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 42-E.Evans punts 44 yards to SEA 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 31 for 20 yards (51-T.Reeder).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.12 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 55, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model