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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 12 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to LA 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.95 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP