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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Seattle Seahawks 12

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 42-E.Evans punts 31 yards to SEA 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.41 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 26, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP