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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Seattle Seahawks 12

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 42-E.Evans punts 32 yards to SEA 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.22 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP