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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 12 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to LA 25, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-28-N.Pritchett.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.14 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 37, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP