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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 23-K.Williams left tackle to SEA 1 for 34 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -2.09 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.19 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model