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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(12:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 4, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model