Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

(12:58) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to TB 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.13 EP
62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model