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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 21

Buffalo Bills 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 15-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.08 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model