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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.05 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 5, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.10 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP