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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 52

Buffalo Bills 44 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32

What Actually Happened

(:50) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 32 yards to TB 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-42-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.47 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 52, worth -1.33 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model