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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 30

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.62 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model