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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to KC 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 15 for no gain (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.92 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 23, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model