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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 4

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(:10) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +3.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.87 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 4, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP