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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to IND 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 37 for 21 yards (59-C.McDonald).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.35 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 22, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP