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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 14

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 12-M.Badgley 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP