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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 14-M.Araiza punts 50 yards to IND 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 26 for 19 yards (21-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.64 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP