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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 5

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 12-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 5, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP