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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 56

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to KC 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio. PENALTY on KC-59-C.McDonald, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at KC 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.58 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model