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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 89

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 14-M.Araiza punts 49 yards to IND 40, Center-41-J.Winchester. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 49 for 9 yards (6-B.Cook).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.66 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 89, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model