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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 43

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(3:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to IND 24 for 19 yards (0-C.Bynum).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.54 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -1.63 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model