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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 10, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model