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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to ARI 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.11 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model