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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 15

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(:17) 38-C.Ryland 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.04 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model