Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 84

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(11:12) 39-M.Haack punts 54 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at ARI 27 for 43 yards (27-A.Davis-Gaither; 16-M.Melton).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.67 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 84, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model