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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 53

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 39-M.Haack punts 50 yards to JAX 3, impetus ends at JAX 2, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-27-A.Davis-Gaither.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.67 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model