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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 39-M.Haack punts 38 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.55 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth +0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model