Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 39-M.Haack punts 65 yards to JAX 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-16-M.Melton. ** Injury Update: JAX-11-P.Washington has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.86 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model