Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

(2:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 4-G.Dortch (25-R.Lane) [47-D.Gardeck].

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.28 EP
67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP