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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 33

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.54 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model