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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to PHI 2, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 12 for 10 yards (38-A.Clark; 14-M.Bell). FUMBLES (38-A.Clark), touched at PHI 7, RECOVERED by DAL-44-T.Sieg at PHI 8. PHI-87-X.Gipson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.51 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model