Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 81

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to DAL 32, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 32 for no gain. PENALTY on DAL-9-K.Turpin, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.41 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 81, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model