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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to PHI 24, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.91 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model