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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 67

Chicago Bears 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 19-T.Taylor punts 58 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 21 for 12 yards (92-D.Hardy).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.68 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model