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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 60

Chicago Bears 31 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.76 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP