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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 62

Tennessee Titans 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 33 for 20 yards (36-J.Chestnut).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model