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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 42

Tennessee Titans 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 84-G.Helm to SEA 32 for 10 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.71 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.00 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model