Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 3 – Seattle Seahawks 23

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 3-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 35 for 4 yards (21-M.Robinson; 36-J.Chestnut). PENALTY on SEA-19-J.Bobo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.08 EP
73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model