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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to TEN 10, Center-41-C.Stoll. 17-C.Dike for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.32 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP