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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 41

Seattle Seahawks 30 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(13:22) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at TEN 46 for -5 yards (49-A.Key).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.06 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model