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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 17 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(4:17) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 11-V.Jefferson to SEA 45 for 11 yards (29-J.Jobe).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.84 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model