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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 28

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.15 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP