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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 20

Washington Commanders 14 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.08 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model