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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 70

Denver Broncos 20 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to WAS 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.95 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model